1 Billion Becquerels Per Hour Emission of Radioactive Materials from Fukushima I Nuke Plant at the End of June

That's an amazing reduction from the maximum emission of 2,000 terabecquerels per hour on March 15, it is actually one-2 millionth of the maximum, says TEPCO in the Reference No. 2 of the progress report on the "roadmap" to God knows where.

Is this number, 1 billion becquerels per hour emission, good? TEPCO's Matsumoto, in the press conference on July 19, avoided the judgment, and said he didn't know, but it was one-2 millionth of what it had been on March 15.

On closer reading of the document, though, I noticed one strange thing about this emission number. TEPCO is talking about the radiation emission measured in cesium (cesium-134 and -137), not in iodine equivalence.

To come up with the iodine-131 equivalence, you have to multiply cesium-134 by 3, and cesium-137 by 40 (according to INES handbook). TEPCO doesn't even give the breakdown of cesium 134 and -137 in its calculation of 1 billion becquerels/hour number. Other nuclides have even higher multiplier: americium-241 is 8,000, plutonium-239 is 10,000.

If half of 1 billion becquerels is cesium-134 and the other half is cesium-137, then in iodine-131 equivalence like in the previous calculations, the emission would be:

(0.5*3)+(0.5*40)=1.5+20=21.5 billion becquerels/hour

Instead of 1 billion becquerels/hour, it would be 21.4 billion becquerels/hour in iodine equivalence, or 516 billion becquerels in one day. In less than 2 days, we would be talking about over 1 terabecquerels.

Why TEPCO would do the calculation in cesium instead of iodine equivalent? To make a ready comparison with the previous emission calculations difficult and to give the impression that the number is low?

And what about iodine? They may not be detecting radioactive iodine at Fukushima I Nuke Plant, but iodine-131 is still being detected in sewage sludge in Tokyo and other parts of Kanto.

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#Fukushima I Nuke Plant "Roadmap Step 1" Successfully Completed, Say TEPCO and the Government

Just for the record, here's the English (unofficial) version of TEPCO's progress report on the "Roadmap":

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11071905-e.html

And the official Japanese version:

http://www.tepco.co.jp/cc/press/11071902-j.html

Did someone ask what the "Step 1" was? It was supposed to be "stable cooling of the reactors", and which TEPCO and the government (from PM Kan on down) claim to have been achieved by the full operation (at 70% operating rate) of the contaminated water treatment system and the injection of nitrogen gas into the Containment Vessels of Reactors 1, 2 and 3.

Particularly the latter looks like an effort to just tick off the box in the "roadmap", not necessarily out of real concern of recriticality. For this effort carbon workers were exposed to very high radiation levels inside the reactor buildings of Reactors 2 and 3, not to mention the bots who had to vacuum clean the floor or go measure the radiation.

Just wait for the government's declaration that now it's safe for the residents in 20-30 kilometer radius to go home to the highly contaminated soil that no one will decontaminate and high air radiation, now that the plant is "stable".

To make sure the residents have little choice but to go home, the Fukushima prefectural government is shutting down the evacuation shelters within Fukushima. Temporary housing arrangements in other prefectures for the evacuees from Fukushima are expiring, and are not likely to be renewed because of the cost.

Dr. Shunichi "100 millisieverts are safe" Yamashita is now installed as the vice president of Fukushima Medical University, and must be anxious to help Fukushima residents in any way he can. Fukushima Prefecture is so ready to receive all the residents back inside the prefecture, and the successful completion of the "step 1" is just the news they want to hear.

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PM Kan: "Step 2 Will Be Brought Forward So That You Can Go Home"

"Extend and Pretend" continues in Japan, getting beyond delusional particularly in light of more evidence of widespread radiation contamination.

Prime Minister Kan, who survived the vote of no confidence and is determined more than ever to stay on (or dissolve the lower house and hold a general election with "beyond nuke" message, as some analysts have suggested, to appeal to the Japanese who are increasingly anti-nuke), now promises the 12 heads of the municipalities around Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant that completion of the "step 2" of the so-called "roadmap" will be expedited so that their people can go home.

What is the "step 2"? It is to bring the reactors to a "cold shutdown".

Don't laugh. And don't ask how they can bring three broken reactors which may not even have the fuel (or corium) inside to a "cold shutdown". Technically, a "cold shutdown" assumes a sound RPV and containment, not a RPV with a hole or two, Containment Vessel with a hole or two, and the reactor building top blown to smithereens. They will probably have to change the very definition of "cold shutdown" to claim they will have achieved the "cold shutdown".

Let's see, according to TEPCO, the Reactor Pressure Vessel's temperature for Reactor 1 is 102 degrees Celsius at the bottom of the RPV, the temperature for Reactor 2's RPV at the same place is 127 degrees Celsius. Reactor 3's RPV is hotter at 141 degrees Celsius at the water feeder. But just wait another 3, 4 months or so till the corium completely falls out of the RPVs and hopefully out of the Containment Vessel and deep into the concrete or substrate, so that the RPV's temperature drops down below 100. Call that a cold shutdown, and they're all set.

Yomiuri Shinbun (7/17/2011) reports:

菅首相は１６日、福島県郡山市内のホテルで、東京電力福島第一原子力発電所の周辺１２市町村の首長らとの意見交換会に出席した。

Prime Minister Kan attended a meeting on July 16 at a hotel in Koriyama City, Fukushima Prefecture to exchange opinions with the heads of the 12 municipalities surrounding Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant.

首相は、原発事故の収束までの道筋を示した「工程表」に関し、来年１月中旬までに原子炉を冷温停止状態とする「ステップ２」を前倒しで実現する考えを示した。　出席者によると、同席した細野原発相が、１７日が期限の「ステップ１」を「ほぼ達成できた」と報告し、首相は「多くの皆さんが故郷に帰れるように『ステップ２』を前倒しさせたい」と語った。

Regarding the "roadmap" to winding down the plant accident, the prime minister expressed his hope that the "step 2" will be achieved ahead of schedule. The "step 2" is to bring the reactors to a "cold shutdown" by the middle of January next year. According to the participants in the meeting, Minister in charge of the nuke accident Hosono reported that the "step 1", whose deadline was July 17, had been almost all successfully completed. The prime minister said "we want to achieve the "step 2" ahead of schedule so that many of you can go back to your homes."

また、首相が「脱原発」方針を私的な見解だったと閣僚懇談会や国会で説明したことに関し、脱原発を支持する首長から「本当にがっかりした」などと批判が出た。これに対し、首相は政府として見解を統一する意向を示したという。

Some expressed a huge disappointment at the prime ministers explanation in the cabinet meeting and in the Diet that his "beyond-nuke" stance was only his personal opinion. In response, the prime minister said his administration's unified view on the issue would be decided soon.

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Kyodo News: "TEPCO believes stabilizing Fukushima reactors by year-end impossible"

Oh what a surprise.

From Kyodo News English (full article by subscription only; 5/30/2011):

Tokyo Electric Power Co. is coming to the view that it will be impossible to stabilize the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant by the end of this year, senior company officials said Sunday, possibly affecting the timing for the government to consider the return of evacuees to their homes near the plant.

The revelation that meltdowns had occurred at the Nos. 1 to 3 reactors at the plant, most likely with breaches to pressure vessels encasing nuclear fuel, has led the officials to believe that ''there will be a major delay to work'' to contain the situation, one of them said.

The plant operator, known as TEPCO, announced on April 17 its road map for bringing the troubled reactors at the plant into a stably cooled condition called ''cold shutdown'' in six to nine months.

Well, as late as May 17 when the revised "roadmap" was disclosed, TEPCO said there would be no change in the target time-frame for the "cold shutdown".

The Kyodo Japanese article has a bit more information "leaked" by the TEPCO execs:

• One executive said "6-9 month time-frame is only a target to strive for, and not a binding one." [So the "roadmap" is a wish-list.]
  

• About the Reactor 1 whose Containment Vessel is now found to be leaking water, "We have to find the leak and stop it. If we don't know the extend of the damage to the Containment Vessel, we don't know how long it takes to stop the leak."

• Another exec says "it will take 1 or 2 additional months" to bring the reactors in "cold shutdown" because of the bigger cooling system now envisioned.

• Yet another one says "the works at three reactors [1, 2, 3] are not progressing simultaneously, as planned. We'll have to ask workers to work during the New Year holidays."

These executives are no doubt from the TEPCO's Tokyo headquarters and probably the same ones who ordered a fancy "roadmap" at the government's request, not people at Fukushima I Nuke Plant trying to contain the on-going crisis for the past 2 and a half months.

"Cold shutdown", as Kyoto University's Koide has repeatedly said, assumes the Reactor Pressure Vessel intact, and the fuel rods intact. There is no word for bringing the broken reactor with totally melted fuel into a stable condition so that it won't emit any more radiation. There is no established process to do that, particularly when the melted jumble, corium, is possibly eating away the concrete beneath the Containment Vessels.

As long as TEPCO (headquarters) and the Japanese government are fooling around with the impossible idea of "cold shutdown" of the reactors that are broken, with the corium already outside the Reactor Pressure Vessels, or Containment Vessels, there will be no end in sight, I'm afraid.

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