ACT and Mana votes increase in Horizon poll

Last week a Horizon Poll asked respondents

If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for, or which do you have a preference towards at the moment?

Despite ACT’s recent difficulties, it’s polling has gone up every poll since February, now polling 5.3 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent last month.

The Mana Party is polling 2.3 per cent which is quite high for a party that is not even registered with the Electoral Commission. Horizon says that a third of these votes are coming off the Maori Party - a party which was on 2.4 per cent last month but has not lost a third of its vote.

Horizon also says that more than a sixth of the Mana Party vote is coming off the United Future vote, which has dropped from 1.1 per cent to 0.9 per cent.

But the Maori Party vote only dropped to 2.1 percent, meaning that if a third of the Maori Party vote went to Mana, others must have declared support for the Maori Party that did not vote Maori Party in 2008.

Those others must have come from either the undecided vote, or from other parties. My view is that some came from NZ First, whose vote went from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent .

More than 11 per cent support parties that are not currently, or won’t be, in parliament after the election. Additionally, the “don’t knows” went from 8.4 per cent to 4.9 per cent – a big drop. Some former “don’t knows” are now propping up National and Labour’s support –compensating National for some votes it lost to Act. Labour’s vote increased and National’s slightly reduced.

Additionally the margin of error is 2.3 per cent – the same as the Mana Party.

So what does all this mean? Nothing much, really; ACT’s supporters prefer Don Brash and, along with Mana and the Maori Party, have gained some supporters at the expense of NZ First - and the undecided voters will decide the election. If a significant number of the undecided were to support minor parties they`ll have more influence on which of the minor parties decides who governs.

With an undecided vote slashed in half, but not greatly affecting the Left/Right support, NZ First on 6.8 per cent is starting to look rather troubling.

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Mana Party could be good for Labour

Some within the Mana Party are getting excited with a recent Horizon poll that shows that the Mana Party could win 12.5 percent of electorate and 15.1 percent of party votes cast by Maori. But around double that (28 percent) are undecided.

Yet most of those indicating they may join the Mana party – that’s 42.5 percent of those who voted the Maori Party in 2008, and 30.5 percent of Maori nationwide – have indicated they’ll vote other parties. Horizon’s summary is here., showing that the Mana party will split the Maori vote and Labour could be the winner.

Also, a full 53 percent think the by-election – if it happens, and I think it probably will no matter what the people of Te Tai Tokerau think - is a waste of money, but two-thirds want the Maori Party to stand a candidate. Wonder if Hone Harawira will listen to that?

The other trouble for Hone Harawira and company is that, according to the poll, the Maori Party will get even more votes than Mana – and the Labour Party will get more still, with 22.6 per cent of party votes. The party vote will cause the Maori Party no problems, unless that is a reflection of a drop in electorate candidates' votes, as it is reliant on the electorate vote for its members. However the Mana party will be more reliant on the party vote to get more than two members in the House.

Of those who voted for the Maori Party in the Maori electorate, just under 40 percent would vote for them in 2011, and just a third would re-cast a party vote for the Maori Party. And 15.1 percent of around 17 per cent of the population won’t cut it, making the Mana party politically irrelevant.

The survey was conducted through recruitments to a new panel, where Maori participants went into a draw to win $1000 cash and a Wi-Fi iPad2.

In this survey Labour was seen as most likely to advance Maori on employment (52 percent, Maori Party 50.6 percent, Mana 42.4 percent). The Maori Party is ahead on advancing Maori education (60.1percent , Labour 50.3percent, Mana 42.9 percent) and health (62.3 percent, Labour 47.8 percent, Mana 43.8 percent).

One wonders how Mana Party supporters have an idea of Mana policy on health, employment and education when its policies are to abolish GST, and replace with a "Hone Heke" tax, nationalise all monopolies and duopolies (I wonder how many Mana Party supporters know what a duopoly is), and effectively bring back compulsory union membership.

The poll also found that of those who would consider becoming a member of the Mana party, less than half would vote for the party on either the electorate vote or the party vote on election day. The survey didn’t ask why a participant would consider becoming a member. Wonder what they would most likely say: "because I can, bro", or "because I *really* like the policy on duopolies"?

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